Page 37 - Commercial Vehicle Engineer - June 2021

COMMERCIAL VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS
BUS AND COACH PROBLEMS
However, there has been no such recovery in the bus and coach market. Indeed, new registrations fell by more than half in the first quarter of 2021 compared to 2020.
The SMMT reported that registrations in the opening three months of 2021 were the worst on record for the start
of a year, with just 582 buses and coaches hitting the road, a fall of 58.5% year-on-year.
This decline was blamed by the SMMT on significantly reduced demand during nationwide lockdowns combined with a longer-term challenge of declining ridership.
Single-deck buses and coaches were most affected by prolonged closures, down 72.6% to just 91 vehicles registered. Meanwhile, the largest segment, minibuses weighing more than 3.5 tonnes, saw a decline of 59.2% to just 384 vehicles, and double-deck bus and coach registrations dropped 17.7% to
107 vehicles.
Bus ridership was most impacted by
the coronavirus closures of 2020, with traffic down 32% in the year. This decline compounds a longer-term trend for decreasing numbers of bus passengers. These problems will need to be addressed by the government in its post-pandemic recovery strategy, the SMMT says.
“It is devastating but unsurprising that the bus and coach sector has continued to suffer well into 2021, with no sign of recovery yet,” says Hawes. “Battling with long-term declines in passenger numbers and the nationwide lockdown measures brought about by the pandemic, has resulted in plummeting registrations. The sector urgently needs a boost in operator confidence to restore order books before we can even to begin to
talk about recovery. Given that the
UK needs to replace at least 4,000 vehicles a year as they retire from service, we are dangerously at risk of a bus shortage at a time when public transport will be needed most as businesses return to work.”
Bus registrations were the worst on record in the first three months of 2021
“It is devastating but unsurprising that the bus and coach sector has continued to suffer well into 2021”
FUTURE
There is optimism within the sector that HGV and LCV registrations will continue to climb over the remainder of 2021.
Indeed, the van sector recorded its busiest ever April as 30,440 new units were registered, as the sector returned to 2019 levels.
However, whether the HGV and LCV markets will get back to 2019 levels across the duration of the year is more open to question as 2019 was a particularly good year for sales, buoyed by new models on sale and operators bringing forward fleet renewals to beat new legislation.
Much will depend on whether COVID-19 cases remain at their current low levels and life can return
to something like ‘normal’, and then whether the economy recovers as much as economists have predicted.
Whether bus and coach registrations improve will rely on several factors, including a recovery from the pandemic, which will see passenger levels rise as more people return to working in offices and factories and will need transport to get there, and an increase in coach trips.
It will also be dependent in part on the government’s implementation of its ‘Bus Back Better’ national bus strategy for England, which was announced recently. This is in addition to the £3 billion announced last year to upgrade the bus network around the country and could lead to more bus purchases. However, any uptick will not be until later in the year at the earliest.
COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ENGINEER > JUNE 2021 37